Climate-driven disruptions are putting global food security at risk. Local communities will pay the heaviest price

Most of the world’s calories come from just a few crops, grown in a handful of countries. These countries, says TMP’s data, are particularly prone to shifts in extreme and unseasonal weather. 

Taken together, our highly concentrated food supply and rapidly changing climate point to one outcome: food insecurity is going to get significantly worse. And local communities who’ve done the least to cause the climate crisis will bear the brunt of the coming crisis.

If – or when – climate change takes a bite out of global food production, there won’t be a single cause. Instead, a roiling set of climate-aggravated problems – from floods and droughts to conflict and crop disease – will create a state of semi-permanent crisis. TMP is developing food security strategies that account for these cascading impacts, applying a systems outlook on risk that paints the whole picture and helps communities plan for perfect storms. 

TMP’s interest in food security goes back to our earliest work in local resilience. It deepened in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, sending wheat prices soaring to record highs. Our data tells us extreme weather events linked to near-term climate change are poised to cause similar volatility – likely within the next decade. And this time, it won’t be temporary. 

Food relief systems are effective at responding to extreme, time-bound crises, but they aren’t equipped to deal with fundamental shifts in availability and affordability. For that, a new outlook – underpinned by better data – will be required. 

TMP is always looking for partners to join us in this important work. To find out more, get in touch with our team.