OUR WORKMission climate project
Preparing stakeholders for near-term climate change
No matter how quickly we stop burning fossil fuels, the climate has already changed. These changes are occurring more rapidly and with higher intensity than many people, including experts, expected. The full impact of these changes is only starting to manifest and is still poorly understood. The Mission Climate Project aims to quantify these changes and create a better understanding of their impacts in the next decade.
Understanding near-term climate
Our view is that realistic risk assessments should focus on the behavior of extreme values over a far shorter period of time. This view is unique compared to most climate risk analyses which tend to focus on average/median behaviors across multi-model ensembles projected to 2050 or 2100.
To do this, TMP launched the Mission Climate Project (MCP) in 2021 to quantify the potential extreme impacts of unavoidable near-term climate change, which TMP defines as the level of climate change humans cannot realistically avoid creating due to social, political, economic and technological realities. The purpose of MCP is to analyze the social, political and economic impacts of the unavoidable climate change in the 2020s and early 2030s, as the world transitions from 1 °C to 1.5 °C of warming.
Preparing for unavoidable impacts
TMP has made significant investments in modeling and analysis over the past several years, working with top research institutions around the world. The overarching conclusion is that the impacts of the unavoidable climate change are certain to be radical and catch most societies unprepared.
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Shifts in very hot days. Above is an example of TMP’s climate modeling. Using results from 20 different climate models covering half of the Earth’s surface, this model demonstrates that the shift between 1 and 1.5 °C of warming will result in concerning levels of increases in the number of very hot days experienced across different locations. Very hot days are defined as days with temperatures above the 95th percentile for an area in a 1 °C world.
Failure to adequately prepare for these radical shifts will be a significant destabilizing force on all levels. This is why one of our key goals is to help governments and other key decision-makers anticipate climate impacts and prepare actionable solutions to either avoid or adapt to the most damaging consequences.
Tackling climate risks across industries
We are currently applying the MCP approach to provide solutions to climate-related risks across multiple different supply chains and key systems. All of the projects below maintain the core philosophy of the MCP: focus on the near-term, a systemic view of risk and emphasis on actionable solutions.
The Mission Climate Project is funded by the V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation (VKRF).
See how we put our climate insights to work.