MISSION CLIMATE PROJECT

We think future historians will regard 2023 as “the end of the beginning” for climate change. It will be the point where climate risk definitively moved from a theoretical future to a daily reality, and it became apparent that the 2020s will see far more radical changes than most people (and experts) realized.

In other words: we’ve been caught by surprise, and this has tremendous consequences that have not been well understood or explained. The Mission Climate Project fixes that problem by providing data about climate risk in the 2020s, explaining what risks that might create and proposing practical solutions for managing them.

Scroll through the boxes below to see some examples of how this information is being put to work.

Transition Minerals

Minerals like lithium or copper are a crucial to achieve global decarbonization goals. Yet, the production and processing of these key resources is itself threatened by climate impacts. Our work on transition minerals brings together actors from all sectors to address production, processing and security challenges.

Food security

Agriculture has put all its eggs in a small number of baskets, both for production of major crops and the fertilizers needed to grow them. Our climate models suggest that not only can we expect a dramatic increase in extreme weather events already in the next decade, but that the places that feed the world are most at risk of physical climate impacts such as droughts and floods.

Taxation

Climate impacts may cause uncertainty in the very sectors that we require to address climate change. The fiscal impacts of climate change are likely to cause disruptions significant enough to prevent investments at the scale and speed needed to decarbonize electricity, transport and food production.

Biodiversity

Biodiversity loss has long been an underestimated and underfunded issue. Things are changing, but climate impacts are manifesting much sooner and much more severely than anyone expected. If funds are not efficiently directed, it might be too little, too late. Using our unique MCP climate models and proprietary data on social, political, environmental and demographic conditions, we have developed a system which helps to direct funds to places where they can make the most difference.

FAQs

What is the Mission Climate Project?: The Mission Climate Project analyzes the social, political and economic impacts of climate change in the 2020s. We use quantitative models to identify locations or sectors that seem to have higher risk of becoming unstable, then use qualitative evidence to figure out what the implications might be.

What services and products do you provide?: We offer analytical products that explain the impact of climate change in the 2020s on a specific region, country, sector or organization. We also offer strategic advisory services, where we use these analyses to help you figure out what adjustments your organization needs to make as a result. Contact us to find out more.

Lots of institutions work on climate change. What’s different about this project?: No matter how quickly we stop burning fossil fuels, we’ve already changed our climate in the 2020s. That change is far more radical than most people (and experts) realize, and has tremendous consequences that have not been well understood or explained. We do both. To our knowledge, no other organization has attempted this at a global scale.

Is this a charitable project?: Yes, we were able to make this a charitable project in 2021 thanks to support from the V. Kann Rasmussen Foundation. All work is managed by a non-profit under an agreement that requires us to operate in the public interest. You can contact us if you would be interested in finding out more about how to support the project.

Can I apply for a job with you?: Yes. Please get in touch to submit your CV. We will reply if we are interested.

Key Contributors

Ben Bowie

Ben Bowie is the Managing Director of TMP Public, the non-profit wing of TMP through which foundations support the Mission Climate Project. A recognized expert in sustainable development and social risk management, he has served on the Steering and Advisory Groups for the OECD Responsible Business Conduct Guidelines, IIED’s Empowering Producers in Commercial Agriculture (EPIC) and for the Interlaken Group, among others. Ben received his MSc in Asian Politics from SOAS University of London, and his BA in Social and Political Sciences from Cambridge University. He lives in Oxford.

Benedict Lever

Benedict Lever is a Researcher at TMP focused on the Mission Climate Project. Since joining in 2021, he has worked on a range of issues including food security, mining, hydropower and climate litigation. Benedict holds a Bachelors in Japanese, Art History and Archaeology from SOAS, University of London and also attended the University of Nagoya. He speaks English and Japanese, and lives in London.

Christian Franzke

Christian Franzke is a scientist focused on understanding climate variability across scales, climate change, extreme weather and climate events, weather and climate risks, and the economics of climate change. He is an Associate Professor and Group Leader at the Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Pusan National University (Korea). He is also one of the founders of the PAGES working group CVAS (Climate Variability across Scales) which attempts to create a better understanding and modeling of the past and future climate variability. He is an editor of Earth System Dynamics and of Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics and received his doctorate in Natural Sciences as well as a master’s in meteorology from the University of Hamburg. He lives in Busan.

Ivana Ema Pavkova

Ivana Ema Pavkova is an Associate at TMP focused on the Mission Climate Project. She joined TMP in 2022 after working on loss and damage, mitigation and NDCs at the OECD, UNFCCC and Cibola Partners. She received her MA in Environmental Policy and BA in Humanities and Social Sciences from Sciences Po Paris. She speaks Czech, English and French and lives in Paris.

Jack Denton

Jack Denton is an Associate at TMP focused on political and social instability. Before joining TMP in 2013, he worked on community climate change responses and social enterprises to improve supply chain transparency, as well as issues facing minority and indigenous communities for Minority Rights Group International. Jack holds a MA in the Anthropology of Development from the University of London and has a BA in Archaeology and Anthropology from the University of Cambridge. He lives in Bristol.

Jun Takagi

Jun Takagi is a Researcher at TMP focused on supply chains. He joined the company in 2023 after a career as a researcher for the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs at their embassy in Beijing as well as more than a decade . He received his MA in Economics from the University of Manchester and his BA in Chinese Language and Literature from J.F. Oberlin University (Machida). He speaks English, Japanese and Mandarin and lives in Tokyo.

Justin Muhl

Justin Muhl is an Associate at TMP focused on mining, energy and emerging markets. He joined TMP in 2020 after a career in environmental consulting, where he specialized in Africa. Justin holds a BS in Environmental & Geographical Sciences and Sociology from the University of Cape Town, and a Postgraduate Diploma in Sustainable Development from Stellenbosch University. He lives in Cape Town.

Kristine Garcia-Gibe

Kristine Garcia-Gibe has been a GIS Analyst at TMP since 2013, working on various research projects related to global environmental change, natural resources management, capacity building and outreach, and science-policy. Her work on the Mission Climate Project covers execution of spatial analytics and development of visuals for conveying risk. Previously, she was a coordinator at the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research in Kobe and a researcher at the World Agroforestry Centre. Kristine received her BS in Mathematics and MS in Environmental Science from the University of the Philippines Los Baños. She is based in Laguna.

Lou Munden

Lou Munden is the Founder of TMP and one of the world’s leading experts in climate risk. With more than 25 years of experience as an entrepreneur, he started TMP in 2009 and continues to direct many of its major undertakings. Lou’s business career began when he dropped out of college in 1996 to direct sales strategy at Go2Net. After it became one of the few profitable Web 1.0 companies and reached a market capitalization of $2.4 billion in 1999, he spent the subsequent decade designing algorithmic trading systems for derivatives markets. He speaks English, French, German, Italian and Japanese, and lives in Tokyo.

Lucia Mumo

Lucia Mumo is the Mission Climate Project’s postdoctoral fellow at Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Pusan National University (Korea). Her role is to develop databases pertaining to climate change and cascading and complex risk. Previously, she worked as a lecturer and researcher at South Eastern Kenya University (SEKU), Kenya through which she gained strong quantitative and computational skills. She received her Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Climate Systems from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology and Bachelor of Science in Meteorology from the University of Nairobi. She lives in Busan.

Yumiko Jimbo

Yumiko Jimbo is TMP’s Managing Director in Japan and focuses on supply chain risks. She joined TMP in 2018 after a two-decade career managing end-to-end design and manufacturing processes with the Sumitomo Group and Mitsubishi Group, where she directed quality control programs for factories across Asia and Europe. Yumiko received her BA in Luso-Brazilian Studies from Tenri University. She speaks English, Japanese and Thai, and lives in Tokyo.

Nobuyuki Egawa

Nobuyuki Egawa is an Associate at TMP focused on the company’s sales, branding and communications in Japan. He joined TMP in 2022 after a career in the fashion and entertainment sectors, where he spent two decades as a provider of business development, brand management, public relations and marketing services for celebrity clients in Japan. Nobuyuki completed his studies at Bunka Fashion College and lives in Tokyo.

Oliver Millel-Hale

Oliver Millel-Hale is a Researcher at TMP focused on security, with an emphasis on the relationship between climate change and conflict. Now completing his PhD in International Relations at the University of Nottingham, Oliver received his MA in Security Studies from University College London and his BA in Politics from the University of Westminster. He lives in Nottingham.

Orlando Bowie

Orlando Bowie is an Analyst at TMP focused on China. Before joining the company in 2023, he lived in China for more than a decade as co-director of research at Pacific Epoch, a provider of advice and data for institutional investors focused on China’s tech sector where he covered metals, mining, energy and finance. He graduated from Cambridge University with an MA in Chinese Studies and also attended Peking University in Beijing. He speaks English and Mandarin.

Peter Riggs

Peter Riggs is the executive director of Pivot Point, an American nonprofit assisting the Mission Climate Project with design, outreach and interface with foundations. Over more than two decades in philanthropy, Peter has been a program officer with the Ford Foundation, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Open Society Institute, and Climate and Land Use Alliance. He founded the Forum on Democracy & Trade in the early 2000s, focusing on responses to the North American Free Trade Agreement and the World Trade Organization. He lives on Harstine Island, Washington State.

Tom Shriner

Tom Shriner has been a Software Developer with TMP since 2012. He develops applications and maintains databases for the project and has over 25 years of experience in embedded/real-time/mission critical software and systems engineering. Tom has been a software developer and engineer with numerous companies, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Monsanto and Motorola. He has a BSET from Purdue University and resides in the Chicago area.

Willie Munden

Willie Munden is the co-designer of the company’s field monitoring and biometric data collection systems and leads the scientific work for the Mission Climate Project. He joined in 2013 after more than two decades working as a contractor for NASA, where he worked on spaceflight and laboratory instrument design, development, testing and operation. He has extensive experience with difficult use cases, from spaceflight, low-earth orbits and earth-based marine surroundings to remote forests in Central Africa. He has a BS in electronics engineering from Old Dominion University and lives on Hatteras Island.

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