About Us

Climate risk is no longer a theoretical possibility, a problem for the next generation. Instead, it is a clear and present danger for much of the world. Unfortunately, climate change will be more extreme in this decade than most people, including climate experts, expected. The fact is we are not ready. Our collective experience over the last few years – with climate-related extreme weather events coming thick and fast around the world – should make that clear.

But there is still time for urgent, targeted and transformative action. At TMP, our mission is to help stakeholders prepare for and address short-term climate change impacts in the 2020s. We assess, quantify and interconnect climate and related risks through data, analysis and fieldwork and then collaborate with our partners in government, civil society and business to address and manage those risks. Climate will drive instability, but it can also create opportunities for individuals, organizations and societies to cooperate, improve and succeed. Our partners trust us to provide highly accurate information and knowledge to help them seize these opportunities.

About TMP

TMP is a consulting group specialized in complex environmental, social, and security problems related to and stemming from climate change. Our focus areas, just to name a few, include the energy transition, food security, sovereign debt, and biodiversity loss. We give our partners straight talk backed by unique datasets, all supported by our analysis and ground-level experience in almost 60 countries. We work side-by-side with our partners – including governments, investors, corporates, research institutions, NGOs, and foundations – to define and implement solutions through charitable and commercial projects.

■Field work and analysis

■Analysis

■Countries where we have conducted analysis:

Afghanistan, Argentina, Australia, Bangladesh, Benin, Bolivia, Botswana, Brazil, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Denmark, DRC, Ecuador, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, France, Gabon, Germany, Ghana, Guatemala, Guinea, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Laos, Lebanon, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua, Nigeria, North Korea, Norway, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Senegal, Somalia, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Tanzania, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, UK, Ukraine, US, Vietnam, Zambia

■Countries where we’ve done both analysis and fieldwork:

Benin, Brazil, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, Côte d’Ivoire, Eswatini, France, Ghana, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Malawi, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Philippines, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, UK, US, Vietnam, Zambia

Our story

TMP was founded in 2009 by Lou Munden to bring clarity and urgency to challenges like food security, land-use change and climate resilience (see “Success Stories” below for more detail). In 2018, we added TMP Climate, our Japanese entity and TMP Public, our UK-based non-profit.

From the start, we invested heavily in fieldwork that would help us to see the people behind the data. During our fieldwork, we repeatedly saw three problems, no matter where in the world we went:

1. Local and national authorities, as well as other key stakeholders, were not delivering on their promises to the citizens.
2. This exacerbated resentment and inequality, which in turn increased the likelihood of social instability such as riots or conflict.
3. Climate and weather extremes were compounding these issues, while at the same time becoming more frequent and severe.

Direct experience of these interconnected problems opened our eyes to the potential for a downward spiral, where instability prevents successful implementation of climate mitigation and adaptation measures, which aggravates climate change impacts and in turn increases instability.

In our early research on this issue, we found ample information on climate impacts in the long run – 2050 and beyond – but nothing for the 2020s, the timeframe that matters to most decision-makers. There was also very little work on the way climate would interact with pre-existing challenges and crises to change the landscape of vulnerability and opportunity. Filling this gap quickly meant producing that information ourselves with the support of climate scientists, first from Woodwell Climate Research Center and later from the IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP). Thus, the Mission Climate Project (MCP) was born.

The Mission Climate Project concentrates entirely on the issues that threaten geopolitical stability in the next five to ten years. MCP takes established climate science and provides intelligence to decision-makers about relevant, near-term risks, described in terms of changes in likelihood and severity for the most destabilizing and damaging impacts. It then helps them to architect and execute appropriate actions to manage risks and expand opportunities.

Our success stories

These are summaries of some of our major projects. Many of these build on or are inspired by earlier projects. For more details, see the linked case studies.

Transition minerals work (2023-present)

Drawing on our unique data on climate impacts over the next five to ten years, TMP is working to understand and address the risks of near-term climate change to the supply chains of key raw materials, such as copper and lithium, that are needed for the transition to green energy, and is supporting stakeholders in preparing for and responding to extreme weather events and their associated shocks, helping to ensure the resilience of climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts.

Direct funding for community engagement and empowerment (2022)

TMP designed a funding facility that would use financial contributions from global businesses and philanthropic bodies to connect communities impacted by private investments with independent capacity and empowerment support, as well as the financial resources needed to secure such support, including legal aid, technical guidance, and access to remedy and communications assistance.

Mission climate project (MCP) (2021-present)

TMP’s Mission Climate Project uses data and analysis to show how a dramatic climate shift in the 2020s will exacerbate numerous social, economic, political, and demographic problems to cause instability, and to provide diverse stakeholders with specific information about where climate-related impacts might be most severe, what the impacts are likely to be, and what can be done about them.

Social-license platform (2019-2021)

TMP developed a website and related systems to connect businesses investing in land with local providers of social and environmental services, such as community engagement, successfully supporting reforestation efforts in Côte d’Ivoire and inclusion of smallholder farmers into international supply chains in Tanzania.

Bonsucro (2018-2019)

Working with partners in the African sugarcane industry, TMP provided over 100 assessment summaries of environmental, social, and political risks at sugar growing and processing assets, and then worked with stakeholders to development and implement low-cost monitoring tools, benefiting thousands of growers across six African countries.

Landscope/Riverscope (2016-present)

Building on our expertise in company-community conflicts, TMP developed Landscope, a geospatial system supporting quantitative analysis of dispute drivers and of the related social, environmental, and political factors, and then followed up with Riverscope, which uses a geospatial analysis of 281 dams to identify quantitative indicators of ESG risks.

Angel (2015-2016)

TMP coordinated and led research showing that geospatial data could be used to assess water and social risks in the mining sector and to support more responsible and more profitable investment processes.

Dryad (2012-2021)

TMP developed and piloted an alternative financing mechanism to support forest-dependent communities, ultimately delivering grant funding to 29 Cameroonian community enterprises that in turn provided information about their progress on environmental and social targets.

Financial and operational risks of insecure tenure (2011-2014)

TMP analysed past emerging-markets projects and produced a report showing that failing to engage the local community and win their support for a real asset in an emerging market creates significant risks for delay, which reduces the project’s value and its rate of return.

Forest carbon (2009-2011)

Based in part on site visits to forest communities in Latin America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, TMP produced a paper showing that carbon markets were a poor solution for forest conservation and “unworkable as currently constructed” due to, in part, measurement problems and value capture by rent-seeking intermediaries.

Where we are

TMP has bases in the UK and Japan as well as staff in the UK, Japan, France, US, the Philippines, and South Africa.

⚫︎Our Offices

United Kingdom | TMP Public C.I.C
Japan | 合同会社TMP CLIMATE

OUR TEAMLeadership

The team

Lou Munden

Lou Munden is TMP’s Founder and one of the world’s leading experts in climate risk. He designs the organization’s quantitative risk models and continues to direct many of its major undertakings. An entrepreneur for more than 25 years, Lou’s business career began when he dropped out of college in 1996 to direct sales strategy at Go2Net, which reached a market capitalization of $2.4 billion in 1999. He spent the 2000s designing algorithmic trading systems for derivatives markets before starting TMP in 2009. Lou is based in Japan.
(Languages: English, French, German, Italian and Japanese)

Ben Bowie

Ben Bowie is the Managing Director of TMP Public, the non-profit wing of TMP. A recognized expert in sustainable development and social risk management, he has served on the Steering and Advisory Groups for the OECD Responsible Business Conduct Guidelines, IIED’s Empowering Producers in Commercial Agriculture (EPIC) and the Interlaken Group, among others. Ben received his MSc in Asian Politics from SOAS University of London and his BA in Social and Political Sciences from Cambridge University. He is based in the United Kingdom.
(Language: English)

Yumiko Jimbo

Yumiko Jimbo is the Managing Director of TMP Climate, the for-profit wing of TMP. She joined TMP in 2018 after a two-decade career managing end-to-end design and manufacturing processes with the Sumitomo Group and Mitsubishi Group, where she directed quality control programs for factories across Asia and Europe. Yumiko received her BA in Luso-Brazilian Studies from Tenri University. She is based in Japan.
(Languages: English, Japanese and Thai)

Willie Munden

Willie Munden is TMP’s Chief Engineer. He is the co-designer of the company’s field monitoring and biometric data collection systems and leads the scientific work for the organization’s quantitative risk models. Willie joined TMP in 2013 after more than two decades at NASA, where he worked on spaceflight, laboratory remote sensing instruments, and equipment for climate change instrument design, development, testing and operation. He has extensive experience in challenging use cases including spaceflight, low orbit, terrestrial marine environments, and remote Central African forests. Willie has a BS in Electronic Engineering from Old Dominion University and is based in the United States.
(Language: English)

Ken Adachi

Ken Adachi is a Senior Strategic Advisor at TMP focused on Japan. He is responsible for aligning the Japanese business with TMP and developing the strategy to address climate change issues in the Japanese society. He started working with TMP in the spring of 2024 after many years with an advertising company in the Nikkei Group, mainly developing B-to-B marketing plans in Japan. He has also been involved in planning and managing a consortium to raise awareness of and disseminate new business concepts such as universal design and the Green Food System Strategy by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries to local governments and private companies, and has practiced various business communication methods. He lives in Japan.
(Language: Japanese)

Alexander Bergh

Alexander Bergh is a Researcher at TMP. Before joining in 2024, he was an Occasional Research Officer at The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment focused on human security in Burkina Faso. He also served as an intern at the US Department of Defense’s National War and Army War Colleges and the Department of Health and Human Service’s Office of Intergovernmental and External Affairs. Bergh earned his MSc degree from the London School of Economics & Political Science and his BA degree from the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies. He lives in the United States.
(Languages: English and French)

Orlando Bowie

Orlando Bowie is an Analyst at TMP focused on China. Before joining the company in 2023, he lived in China for more than a decade as co-director of research at Pacific Epoch, a provider of advice and data for institutional investors focused on China’s tech sector, prior to which he worked in journalism covering metals, mining, energy and finance. Orlando graduated from Cambridge University with an MSc in Chinese Studies and also attended Peking University in Beijing. He is based in the United Kingdom.
(Languages: English and Mandarin Chinese)

Debbie Cunnington

Debbie Cunnington is the Finance Lead for TMP’s non-profit activities. An ACCA-qualified accountant, she joined in 2023 and has over 20 years’ experience in finance across multiple sectors including non-profits and private practice. Her skills include financial reporting, variance analysis, budgeting and forecasting, and all aspects of management accounting. She is based in the United Kingdom.
(Language: English)

Jack Denton

Jack Denton is an Analyst at TMP focused on socio-political instability and biodiversity. Before joining in 2014, he worked on community climate change responses and social enterprises to improve supply chain transparency, as well as issues facing minority and indigenous communities for Minority Rights Group International. Jack holds an MA in the Anthropology of Development from the University of London and has a BA in Archaeology and Anthropology from the University of Cambridge. He is based in the United Kingdom.
(Language: English)

Joe Dyson

Joe Dyson is TMP’s Director of Partnerships focused on non-profit fundraising. With a decade of experience in fundraising and program design, he joined TMP in 2023 to collaborate with those interested in increasing community and ecosystem resilience as effectively and efficiently as possible. Joe holds a BSc in Zoology from the University of Liverpool and is based in the United Kingdom.
(Language: English)

Nobuyuki Egawa

Nobuyuki Egawa is an Associate at TMP focused on sales, branding and communications. He joined TMP in 2022 after a career in the fashion and entertainment sectors, where he spent two decades as a provider of business development, brand management, public relations and marketing services for celebrity clients. Nobuyuki has a BA from Bunka Fashion College and is based in Japan.
(Language: Japanese)

Kristine Garcia-Gibe

Kristine Garcia-Gibe is an Analyst at TMP focused on geospatial analytics and development of visuals for conveying risk. Prior to joining in 2013, she was a coordinator at the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research in Kobe and a researcher at the World Agroforestry Centre. Kristine received her BS in Mathematics and MS in Environmental Science from the University of the Philippines Los Baños. She is based in the Philippines.
(Languages: English and Tagalog)

Benedict Lever

Benedict Lever is an Analyst at TMP focused on climate risk. Since joining in 2021, he has worked on a range of issues including food security, mining, hydropower and climate litigation. Benedict holds a BA in Japanese Art History and Archaeology from SOAS, University of London, and also attended the University of Nagoya. He is based in the United Kingdom.
(Languages: English and Japanese)

Oliver Millel-Hale

Oliver Mihell-Hale is a Researcher at TMP focused on security and conflict. Now completing his PhD in International Relations at the University of Nottingham, Oliver received his MSc in Security Studies from University College London and his BA in Politics from the University of Westminster. He is based in the United Kingdom.
(Language: English)

Maisie Morris

Maisie Morris is a Research Assistant at TMP focused on climate risk. She joined in 2023 after holding positions at Torchlight and the UN Refugee Agency, where she worked on geopolitical risk, refugee rights and parliamentary affairs. Maisie received her MSc in Migration Studies from Oxford University and a BA in International Relations from Edinburgh University. She is based in the United Kingdom.
(Language: English)

Justin Muhl

Justin Muhl is an Analyst at TMP and leads TMP’s work on transition minerals. Since joining TMP in 2020, he has been primarily focused on the impacts and opportunities in mining, renewable energy and emerging markets. Before TMP, Justin worked in the environmental department for a renewable energy company in South Africa. Justin completed a Postgraduate Diploma in Sustainable Development at Stellenbosch University and holds a Bachelor’s in Environmental & Geographical Sciences and Sociology from the University of Cape Town. He lives in South Africa.
(Language: English)

Mikiko Okumura

Mikiko Okumura is TMP’s Interpreter/Translator . As a freelance /translator and writer, she has worked with many companies and organizations, including The Asahi Shimbun, GE Capital and International Christian University (ICU). She holds a BA degree from ICU's Faculty of Humanities. She lives in Japan.
(Languages: Japanese and English)

Ivana Ema Pavkova

Ivana Ema Pavkova is an Analyst at TMP focused on climate risk. She joined TMP in 2022 after working on loss and damage, mitigation, and NDCs at the OECD, UNFCCC, and Cibola Partners. She received her MA in Environmental Policy and BA in Humanities and Social Sciences from Sciences Po Paris. She is based in France.
(Languages: Czech, English and French)

Tom Shriner

Tom Shriner is a Software Developer at TMP focused on application and database development. He joined in 2012 after more than 25 years of experience in embedded, real-time, and mission-critical software and systems engineering. Tom has been a software developer and engineer with numerous companies, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Monsanto and Motorola. He has a BSET from Purdue University and resides in the United States.
(Language: English)

Lana Shukir

Lana Shukir works as a non-technical Research Assistant to Lou Munden, providing research reports on a wide range of social and political topics. Before joining TMP, she worked for the Tokyo Metropolitan Government as an international specialist. Lana holds a BA in Japanese and International Relations from SOAS, University of London and an MA in International Relations from King’s College London. She also attended Tokyo University of Foreign Studies as a MEXT scholar. She lives in Japan.
(Languages: Japanese and English)

Gonzalo Silva Ayarza

Gonzalo Silva Ayarza is an Analyst at TMP focused on Latin America and the Caribbean. Prior to joining TMP in 2023, he practiced law in Chile, served as the municipality administrator of Timaukel, Patagonia, and co-founded the NGO Reñaca Más Alto. Gonzalo holds a law degree from Universidad Católica de Valparaiso, Chile, and a master's degree in Public Policy from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). He is based in the United Kingdom.
(Languages: English and Spanish)

Junko Takahashi

Junko Takahashi is the Graphic Designer at TMP. She studied art and design in the U.S. and worked for a major foreign publisher as a head designer for over 15 years. With experience in publishing, she freelanced in the commercial field for a few years before joining TMP in 2023. She received her BA in Fine Art and Commercial Design from Central Washington University in the U.S. She lives in Japan.
(Languages: Japanese and English)

Alia Yusuf

Alia Yusuf is a Researcher at TMP focused on biodiversity and transition minerals. Before joining TMP in 2024, she worked in policy analysis at the IFC and APEC, with a concentration in environmental issues in Southeast Asia. Alia holds an MPA from the London School of Economics and a BSc in Political Economy from King’s College London. She lives in the United Kingdom.
(Languages: English, Indonesian and Spanish)