Transition Minerals

Date: 2023-present

Overview

This is a three-year, $5m project to understand and address the risks of near-term climate change to the supply chains of key raw materials, like copper and lithium, that are needed for the transition to green energy. We’re drawing on our unique data on climate impacts over the next five to 10 years to support stakeholders in preparing for and responding to extreme weather events and associated shocks, helping to ensure the resilience of our efforts to fight climate change.

This project aims to improve the resilience not just of supply chains but of communities and biodiversity impacted by key assets. It is doing this by building partnerships in 15 countries, drawing on TMP’s analyses of near-term climate risks to spur innovation and collaboration.

Key lessons

TMP’s analysis of transition mineral supply chains produced some concerning results. Of the 35 key mining areas we surveyed, which together account for a significant proportion of global transition mineral production and processing, 94 percent are unusually exposed to imminent changes in temperature and precipitation. Even more alarming, 46 percent are extremely exposed to at least one extreme weather event, while 69 percent are unusually exposed to more than one extreme weather event, making multi-hazard events a significant risk.

Extreme weather events are disruptive enough on their own. But they also exacerbate existing social, political and environmental problems that increase the threat of supply chain disruption. Extreme temperatures will increase the likelihood of conflict and disputes in mining and processing areas, leading to long delays and project cancellations. Extreme rainfall will increase the risk of tailings pond failures like the Brumadhino disaster. And a lack of rainfall will aggravate local competition over access to water.

Our analysis of more 300 processing assets found that 43 percent were exposed to unseasonably high or low rainfall. In China, the world’s largest transition minerals processor by a considerable margin, exposure increased to 54 percent of assets, while 75 percent can expect extreme shifts in unseasonably low precipitation. Given China’s reliance on water-dependent energy sources like hydro and thermal power, these results suggest that water scarcity could be a major constraint for Chinese processing.

Partners

Nikkei BP

Natural Resources Canada

Royal United Services Institute

Atlantic Council

Anglo American

Fastmarkets

SQM

University of Melbourne

Watermarq

Funder

Hewlett Foundation

Quadrature Climate Foundation