Transition Minerals

Date: 2023-present

Overview

This is a three-year, $5m project to understand and address the risks of near-term climate change to the supply chains of key raw materials, like copper and lithium, that are needed for the transition to green energy. We’re drawing on our unique data on climate impacts over the next five to ten years to support stakeholders in preparing for and responding to extreme weather events and associated shocks, helping to ensure the resilience of our efforts to fight climate change.

This project involves working on seven core materials: cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, manganese, nickel and rare earth metals. It aims to improve the resilience not just of supply chains but of communities and biodiversity impacted by key assets. It is doing this by building partnerships in 15 countries, drawing on TMP’s analyses of near-term climate risks to spur innovation and collaboration.

Key lessons

Our analysis of TM supply chains is still in the early stages, but our initial results are concerning. We surveyed 25 key mining areas and found that they were more than 3 times more likely to be at risk of extreme shifts in hazard behavior than the rest of the world. Similarly, for key processing areas in China, our modelling found an increase of over 800% for drought events that could curtail production based on hydropower.

Partners

Nikkei

Natural Resources Canada

Royal United Services Institute

Atlantic Council

Anglo American

Mining 360 Dialogue

Watermarq

Funder

Hewlett Foundation

Quadrature Climate Foundation