TMP

OUR WORKTransition minerals

Mineral supply chains for transition technologies like renewables, electric vehicles and grid infrastructure need to expand rapidly, which is now widely understood. It is less well recognized that extreme weather events (EWEs) and other climate-related phenomena are paramount risks for these “transition mineral” supply chains that present a wide range of opportunities for much-needed climate resilience.

TMP is working on a three-year initiative, funded by the Hewlett Foundation and the Quadrature Climate Foundation, to catalyze opportunities that help to prepare key decision-makers and communities across supply chains for these shocks and their repercussions.

TMP’s work on transition minerals is part of our broader climate change initiative – the Mission Climate Project. The Mission Climate Project draws on unique climate risk modeling to give stakeholders specific information about which climate impacts will be most severe, where and when. It also delivers guidance on opportunities to avoid, mitigate and adapt to these risks at local, national and international levels, preparing key decision-makers for climate impacts in the 2020s.

Project aims

The project aims to support global emissions reductions by ensuring that we have ongoing and expanded access to the raw materials that are needed for rapid decarbonization this decade. It aims to achieve this by principally reducing conflict- and climate-related disruptions to transition mineral supply chains, while improving the impacts of mining and processing operations for local communities, countries and ecosystems.

Our scope is global, but we are focusing initially on 15 countries which are important producers, processors and consumers of transition minerals.

Our approach

In these geographies, we are using our unique information to catalyze convenings with key decision-makers to trigger actions that prepare for climate risks and their interactions with existing challenges. Our project follows a partnership-driven, five-step process:

  • 1. Assessments

    We are developing reports, infographics, videos and other tools to communicate how climate risks and connected social, political, economic and/or environmental challenges could disrupt transition mineral supply chains. These assessments help key decision-makers to implement actions and policies that reduce their risk exposure (often by building the resilience of companies, local communities and ecosystems).

  • 2. Partnerships

    Partners contribute to our analysis and support our efforts to convene powerful meetings which foster concerted, significant action to address coming challenges. For example, the IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) is helping us develop our near-term climate risk datasets, and we have partnered with Nikkei BP, RUSI, the Atlantic Council and others to host events and workshops.

  • 3. Workshops

    We are catalyzing events and workshops across our 15 target countries to initiate pathways to action. We have already co-hosted an event for Japanese businesses with Nikkei BP in Tokyo, as well as a closed-door workshop for public officials and security groups with RUSI in London.

  • 4. Readouts

    After events we produce “readouts” – summaries of the workshops which capture key lessons from workshop discussions and any plans of action that were identified or agreed on as a result. The readouts are fed back to any interested workshop participants and form the basis for defining roadmaps for improvement and actions that are aligned across stakeholder groups.

  • 5. Actions

    The final phase of our work aims to create traction for a series of positive, urgent actions that address the risks and related issues that are highlighted in our assessments, discussed during the events and captured by the readouts.

Explore TMP’s ongoing research into climate risks and opportunities in transition mineral supply chains. We have a considerable number of outputs in the pipeline and under consideration, which you can explore by clicking on the links below.

Publication titlePublication date
Hydropower Risks for Critical Mineral Supply Chains (Report)September 2024
Logistics and Chokepoints Analysis (RUSI Report)October 2024
China Reliance and Diversification (Atlantic Council Report)Q3 2024
Climate and Social Risk Assessment (Report)Q4 2024
Materiality of Physical Climate Risks for Critical Mineral Supply Chains (Report)Q2 2025
Materiality of Cumulative Climate Risks for Critical Mineral Supply Chains (Report)Q3 2025

We would love to hear from you about whether you would like to collaborate on some of these pieces and/or if there is a piece under consideration that you would like to see.